After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). The divisions were everywhere. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. i.e. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Seriously. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Still, the state's worth watching. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. These counties could play an . 03:30. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Voter Demographics (9). Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Until this year. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Republicans have paid some attention. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. First, what are bellwether counties? In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Have you looked at the results of these counties? That report was issued on Nov. 12. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Just how big is it? In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. 2016 Election (1135) 3. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it.
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